Bitcoin (BTC) traders might be feeling actress euphoric afterwards the recent 35% rally, but data suggests bears are not too worried considering a similar breakout took place in mid-July and the price failed to hold the $40,000 support.

To understand how bullish investors are this time around, permit'south accept apart the derivatives data and look at the futures contracts premium and options skew. Typically, these indicators reveal how professional person traders are pricing the odds of a potential retrace to $36,000.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase, in USD. Source: TradingView

Even though the pattern isn't exactly like, Bitcoin crashed to $31,000 on June 8 and bounced to $41,000 six days later. The 32% rally acquired $i.4 billion BTC curt contracts liquidation that spread over the week. Bears were clearly not expecting this move, but in less than three days, Bitcoin was trading below $38,000 and initiated a downtrend.

Therefore, bulls accept reasons to dubiety the current rally'southward sustainability, because at that place haven't been any significant changes to justify the $40,000 level. Moreover, the price could be suppressed by the ongoing FUD regarding miners' exodus from Communist china and Binance moving to seek regulatory approval.

The futures premium has not shown a pregnant recovery

One of the all-time measures of professional traders' optimism is the futures market place's premium because it measures the gap between monthly contracts and the current spot marketplace levels. In healthy markets, a v% to 15% annualized premium is expected. Still, a backwardation scenario occurs during surly markets, and the indicator fades or turns negative.

Bitcoin 1-month futures premium (basis) at Huobi. Source: Skew

According to the chart above, the ane-month futures contract has been unable to recover an annualized premium above 5%. Some periods of backwardation happened over the last month, although the current level is deemed neutral.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures' musical instrument, one should as well analyze options markets.

Related: $60K is now more than probable for Bitcoin than $20K, Bloomberg's senior strategist asserts

Whenever market makers and professional person traders lean bullish, they volition need a college premium on call options. Such a trend will cause a negative 25% delta skew indicator.

On the other hand, whenever the downside protection is more costly, the skew indicator volition become positive.

Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

"Fear" is out of the movie, only neutrality defines the electric current market

When the figure oscillates between negative 10% and positive ten%, the indicator is deemed neutral. The 25% delta skew indicator had been signaling 'fear' between May 14 and July 24.

Notwithstanding, fifty-fifty the recent rally to $40,000 wasn't enough to flip the sentiment towards 'greed,' as the indicator remains neutral at negative 4%.

According to both derivatives metrics, in that location is absolutely no sign of bullishness from professional traders. The 35% price hike might have eliminated a recent pattern of fear, simply it was not plenty to flip the sentiment.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reverberate the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should behave your own research when making a decision.